Why the Secondary Watch Market Is Slowly Stabilising and Why the Giants Will Win the Long Game

The luxury watch world has seen an eventful few years. Prices in the secondary market have danced to the tune of global macroeconomic factors, shifting consumer habits, and evolving brand strategies. Now we’re seeing signals that the storm is finally easing. Secondary watch prices have continued to decline, but at a much gentler pace than in previous quarters. And while not all players are sailing in smooth waters just yet, one key message is becoming clear:

The major players - Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet - are regaining their footing and are ready to emerge stronger in the long run.

Let’s break it down in a digestible way and look at what this means for the industry, investors, and collectors.

Source: quillandpad

A Slower Descent: A Positive Sign

The headline number from the Q1 2025 Morgan Stanley reports might look a bit scary at first glance: prices on the secondary market declined by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. But that figure tells a much more optimistic story when viewed in context.

This is the lowest rate of decline since Q2 2022, breaking a streak of more dramatic quarterly drops and signalling a potential stabilisation. To put this in perspective: in Q4 2024, prices were down 1.6%. The deceleration in this contraction suggests the market is finding its balance after several years of turbulence.

Importantly, this trend is increasingly driven by the “Big Three” - Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet - whose performance outshined that of their listed competitors.

The Big Three: Back on Top

In Q1 2025, the Big Three began to pull ahead.

• Rolex led the pack with a +0.4% increase in secondary prices, boosted by strong demand for its classic Datejust and Day-Date models.
  
  

• Audemars Piguet came in close behind, down just -0.3%, continuing a pattern of consistent, if conservative, strength.
  
  

• Patek Philippe, while still showing a slight decline of -1.5%, was among the top 10 performing brands and improved from prior quarters.
  
  

This marks an interesting shift from 2024, when even the Big Three were stuck in the middle of the performance pack. And it’s a far cry from 2022-2023, when these titans were leading the decline. In other words, we may be witnessing the return of market leadership from the brands that historically define value and prestige in the watch world.

Why It's Important: Bouncing Back, Staying Trusted, and Keeping Value

In volatile markets (watch or otherwise), quality always shines through. We all know that the broader economic environment is quite uncertain, but that’s when buyers are gravitating toward watches they see as safe stores of value. And for good reason.

Even as prices across the board have trended downward, Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet watches continue to trade above retail. This shows not just scarcity or hype, but decades of brand equity, heritage, and consistent excellence.

The value retention worsened across most brands, with Rolex as the standout exception. Rolex even overtook Patek Philippe as the top brand in terms of secondary value retention - an impressive stunt considering the high bar both brands set.

Source: quillandpad

Private vs. Public: The Advantage of Independence

One of the most telling dynamics in the Q1 reports is the clear divide between privately owned brands and publicly listed ones. Private players - especially the Big Three - are simply performing better, both in terms of price stability and perceived brand strength.

Why is that?

Privately held companies often enjoy greater agility and longer-term strategic vision without the quarterly pressures that public companies face. They can focus on scarcity, exclusivity, and maintaining brand prestige, rather than chasing short-term sales at the expense of long-term value.

Compare this to listed groups like LVMH, Richemont, and the Swatch Group, many of whose brands saw 3–5% price drops QoQ. While Cartier and Omega stood out as relatively stable performers, others like TAG Heuer, IWC, and Hublot experienced more significant declines.

A Closer Look: What’s Happening with the Listed Groups?

Let’s explore some of the big names from listed companies, based on the Q1 2025 data:

• Cartier continues to show strength, outperforming many brands (even Patek) with just a -1.1% drop QoQ. It’s gaining market share in the primary market, and that confidence is reflected on the secondary side.
  
  

• Omega, a jewel in Swatch Group’s crown, saw just a -1.0% decline, thanks to iconic collections like the Speedmaster and Seamaster.
  
  

• However, TAG Heuer (-4.1%), Hublot (-5.2%), IWC (-3.5%), and Vacheron Constantin (-3.1%) all saw steeper declines, raising concerns about the sustainability of their positioning.
  
  

Listed groups are not out of the game, but the current environment favours brands that have maintained tighter control over distribution, brand image, and pricing discipline.

It’s Not So Bad For Mid-Tier Brands

It’s not all about the Big Three. The report also notes a growing consumer awareness around residual value - a trend that could benefit mid-tier brands in the long term.

Brands like A. Lange & Söhne, IWC, and Jaeger-LeCoultre, which currently trade at 30–40% discounts on the secondary market, may soon become more attractive to smart buyers. As more consumers learn about these price differentials, they may increasingly choose to buy on the secondary market where value is more aligned with quality, potentially boosting demand and improving price performance for these names in the years ahead.

Source: quillandpad

Inventory, Demand, and the Road Ahead

Another encouraging sign: inventory turnover remains healthy, even as supply increases. This shows that demand hasn't disappeared; it’s just more selective.

Brands like Cartier, Omega, and IWC are still moving inventory well. Rolex’s Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) program, while levelling off in Q1 2025, still hit $100 million in sales.

The market is rebalancing, not retreating.

Final Thoughts

It’s important to see this moment as a correction rather than a collapse. The secondary watch market grew at a crazy pace between 2020 and 2022, and a cooldown was inevitable. What we’re seeing now is a natural recalibration, one that favours brands with smart strategic positioning.

Yes, prices are still down for most brands. But the declines are smaller, more controlled, and no longer widespread panic. The major players are stabilising and beginning to lead again.

Collectors should take heart. Enthusiasts should stay curious. And investors would do well to remember one of the most important lessons in luxury:

In the long run, quality wins.